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Marcus Müller
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Let's define a helper: $y(n) = w(n) + w(n-1)$. Then, your $x$ becomes

\begin{align} x(n) &= \frac15 x(n-1) + y(n)\ &= \frac15 \left(\frac 15x(n-2)+y(n-1)\right) + y(n)\ &=\frac 1{25}x(n-2)+\frac15 y(n-1)+ y(n)\ &=\frac1{5^3}x(n-3)+\frac 1{25}y(n-2)+\frac15 y(n-1)+ y(n)\ &=\sum_{p=0}^\infty 5^{-p}y(n-p)\ &=\sum_{p=0}^\infty\left( 5^{-p}w(n-p)+5^{-p}w(n-p-1)\right)\ &=\sum_{p=0}^\infty 5^{-p}w(n-p)+\sum_{q=1}^\infty5^{-q+1}w(n-q)\ &=5^{-0}w(n)+\sum_{p=1}^\infty 5^{-p}w(n-p)+\sum_{q=1}^\infty5^{-q+1}w(n-q)\ &=w(n)+\sum_{p=1}^\infty \left(5^{-p}w(n-p)+5^{-p+1}w(n-p)\right)\ &=w(n)+\sum_{p=1}^\infty w(n-p)\left(5^{-p}+5^{-p+1}\right)\ &=w(n)+6\sum_{p=1}^\infty w(n-p)5^{-p}\[2em] % % E\left[x^2(n)\right] &= E\left[\left(w(n) +\underbrace{\sum_{p=1}^\infty w(n-p)6\cdot5^{-p}}{s(n)}\right)^2\right]\ &= E[w^2(n)] + E[2w(n)s(n)] + E[s^2(n)]\ &= \frac32 + 2E[w(n)s(n)] + E[s^2(n)]\ &= \frac32 + 2E\left[\sum{p=1}^\infty w(n)w(n-p)6\cdot5^{-p}\right] + E[s^2(n)]\[2.5em] % % E[s^2(n)] &= E[s(n)\cdot s(n)]\ &\text{Cauchy product formula:}\ &= E\left[\sum_{k=0}^\infty\sum_{l=1}^{k-1} w(n-l)\left(5^{-l}+5^{-l+1}\right) w(n-k+l)\left(5^{-k+l}+5^{-k+l+1}\right)\right]\ &= E\left[\sum_{k=0}^\infty \sum_{l=1}^{k-1}\left(5^{-l}+5^{-l+1}\right)\left(5^{-k+l}+5^{-k+l+1}\right) w(n-l) w(n-k+l)\right]\ &= E\left[\sum_{k=0}^\infty \sum_{l=1}^{k-1}36\cdot 5^{-k} w(n-l) w(n-k+l)\right]\ &= E\left[36 \sum_{k=0}^\infty 5^{-k} \sum_{l=1}^{k-1} w(n-l) w(n-k+l)\right]\[2em] % % E\left[x^2(n)\right]&= \frac32

  • 2E\left[\sum_{p=1}^\infty w(n)w(n-p)6\cdot5^{-p}\right] +E\left[36 \sum_{k=0}^\infty 5^{-k} \sum_{l=1}^{k-1} w(n-l) w(n-k+l)\right]\ &= \frac32
  • 12E\left[\sum_{p=1}^\infty w(n)w(n-p)\cdot5^{-p}\right]
  • 36 E\left[\sum_{k=0}^\infty 5^{-k} \sum_{l=1}^{k-1} w(n-l) w(n-k+l)\right]

\end{align}

At this point, things get very hairy: We can proceed if we allow ourselves to "pull" the $E$ operator into these infinite sums. But that only works if the result is finite, otherwise we'd be making a false statement.

Therefore, we must assume that $\left\lvert\sum_{p=1}^\infty E\left[w(n)w(n-p)\cdot5^{-p}\right]\right\rvert<\infty$. A gut feeling is that as long as $w(n)w(n-p) < 5^p$, we're fine, but bear in mind that this might not be the case for just any noise! An example of cases where that would not be the case is an exponentially decaying noisy oscillator of unknown phase with an offset. (due to the offset: non-zero mean, the exponential envelope gives us a bounded variance if we observe across all times, but looking back into the past for $p\to\infty$, we get infinitely many values $>5^p$.)

So!!!! Check! YOUR! Model for $w(n)$!111eleven!

If you trust you're not in one of the cases where this goes wrong (please, be sure):

\begin{align} E\left[x^2(n)\right]&= \frac32 + 12\sum_{p=1}^\infty 5^{-p}E\left[w(n)w(n-p)\right] + 36 \sum_{k=0}^\infty 5^{-k} \sum_{l=1}^{k-1} E\left[w(n-l) w(n-k+l)\right] \end{align}

Marcus Müller
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