BACKGROUND
The bit error probability for BPSK under AWGN is easily derived from tail probabilities of Gaussian distributions and results in
$$P_e = Q\biggr(\sqrt{\frac{2E_b}{N_o}}\biggl)$$
The equivalent bit error probability for DBPSK is given as follows but much more complicated to derive:
$$P_e = \frac{1}{2}e^{-E_b/N_o}$$
A complete derivation for the DBPSK case is here:
http://staff.ustc.edu.cn/~jingxi/Lecture%209_10.pdf
With the same formula and plotted in comparison to BPSK on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-shift_keying#/media/File:DPSK_BER_curves.svg):
MY QUESTION
I incorrectly thought I could simplify this derivation by extending the simpler BPSK $P_e$ result through understanding what occurs when you multiply two signals with independent noise (Matt L has provided that here: SNR After Multiplying Two Noisy Signals), since such a product results when performing non-coherent demodulation for DBPSK.
I show this in the block diagram below:
This is the non-coherent structure for DBPSK demodulation. The transmitter is also differentially encoded to minimize error propagation (so that errors always occur in pairs rather than propagate until the next transition).
Here we can see that given an input DBPSK signal with $SNR = SNR_1$, the signal after being delayed one bit period $T$ will also have $SNR = SNR_1$, but the noise component will be independent (assuming AWGN, the noise is one symbol period is independent of the noise in the next symbol period). With reference to Matt L's result linked above, the predicted SNR at the output of the multiplier would be:
$$SNR_2 = \frac{SNR_1 SNR_1}{SNR_1+SNR_1+1}$$
For real signals, the frequency at the output of the multiplier is the sum and the difference of the input frequencies, so in this case the difference is baseband signal of interest while the sum is the double of the carrier that we filter out with the low pass filter (LPF). The power of both the signal and noise components would be effected the same way in this process, so the SNR at the output of the LPF would still be $SNR_2$.
Note for SNR>>1, $SNR_2$ approaches $SNR_1/2$ or 3 dB worst.
Given this, combined with the double error property that a single bit error always results in 2 errors assuming we use differential encoding in the transmitter- I can convince myself that the predicted bit error rate for DBPSK would be as follows (reducing the SNR by 2 when SNR >> 1 and doubling the resulting P_e) but from the detailed derivation this is clearly incorrect. I understand the detailed derivation- my question is not with that but what is the flaw with this alternate approach?
$$P_e = 2Q\biggr(\sqrt{\frac{x}{2x+1}}\biggl)$$
where $x = \frac{2E_b}{N_o}$
It is interesting to note that for higher order M-PSK, this 3 dB result does match (note the difference between QPSK and DQPSK in the plot above). Perhaps this is a clue that real versus complex is a factor?